S&P Maintains Thailand BBB+ Credit Rating With Stable Outlook
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a Stable Outlook, citing the government's fiscal discipline and continued investment in strategic infrastructure like the Eastern Economic Corridor. The agency projects economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, averaging 2.4% through 2029, while noting that net government debt is expected to rise to 47% of GDP by 2029. Thailand's strong external finances, including high international reserves and net creditor status, remain key rating supports.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekanit Nitithanprapas revealed that on November 4, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) affirmed Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ and kept the outlook at Stable. Key details are as follows:
- S&P expects the Thai economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025, amid external risk pressures and structural economic limitations. Government fiscal policy will help cushion these impacts, while increased government stability supports continuity in long-term economic policy and enhances flexibility in addressing short-term challenges. Over 2026-2029, real GDP growth is projected to average 2.4%, while GDP per capita is forecast to rise from approximately $8,000 in 2024 to $9,100 in 2026, partly due to a stronger baht.
- S&P views the Thai government as continuing to prioritize investment under reform plans and national strategy, particularly the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and transport infrastructure development. State enterprise investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) will play a key role in driving infrastructure investment and reducing some government investment costs.
- The government also has measures to promote investment in advanced technology industries, including tax incentives for data center investment, support for Thai entrepreneurs to enter global artificial intelligence (AI) supply chains, and tax benefits to encourage domestic research and development and technology training. Continued investment promotion policies will help elevate the country's competitive capacity over the long term.
- Thailand will maintain fiscal policy to support economic growth and buffer external risks, coupled with strict fiscal discipline. S&P projects net government debt accumulation at 4.2% of GDP in 2026, averaging 3.5% of GDP over 2026-2029, causing the net general government debt-to-GDP ratio to rise from around 40% at end-2025 to 47% by 2029.
- Thailand continues to maintain a consistently strong external finance position. The current account is expected to be roughly balanced in 2026 before returning to a surplus of approximately 2.1-2.4% of GDP from 2027 onward, driven by export growth alongside intermediate goods imports and energy prices normalizing. Thailand retains its status as a net external creditor with high international reserves, a key factor supporting the sovereign rating.
- Key factors S&P will monitor for future rating considerations include...
