Thai Household Debt Expected to Fall to 84% of GDP
Kasikorn Research Center expects Thailand's household‑debt‑to‑GDP ratio to fall to 84% by the end of 2026, down from 86.8% in 2025, despite minimal debt growth. Many low‑income households spend over 40% of income on debt repayments, and nearly a quarter of indebted households already have negative cash flow. The center warns the improvement reflects limited borrowing ability rather than healthier finances, and sustainable deleveraging will need higher incomes and stronger repayment capacity.
Kasikorn Research Center expects Thailand's household‑debt‑to‑GDP ratio to slow to 84.0% by the end of 2026 from 86.8% in 2025, even though total debt is barely growing. The center noted that the ratio in Q2/2026 stood at 85.2%, with debt up just 0.6% compared to the same period last year. Divergent loan trends across categories reveal differing purchasing power and debt‑taking abilities, reinforcing a K‑shaped debt growth pattern. Analysis of the National Statistical Office’s SES 2025 data showed that households earning no more than 15,000 baht per month have an average debt‑service ratio of 40.1%, well above the 26.3% average for all indebted households. Roughly 23.8% of indebted households already have negative cash flow, a shortfall that is more severe among low‑income groups. A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 10% rise in expenses would push an additional 1.2 million households into negative cash margin, mostly those earning 15,000–50,000 baht monthly. Kasikorn Research Center cautioned that the apparent improvement in the debt ratio largely reflects constraints on new borrowing rather than stronger finances, and sustainable deleveraging will still require income recovery and better repayment capacity.
