CIMB Research is monitoring a new round of trade tensions and has submitted five economic recommendations to the Thai government, emphasizing the need for policies that create long-term jobs and income rather than short-term cash distribution.

Amornthep Javaala, Assistant Managing Director and head of CIMB Thai Bank's research division, revealed that Thai economy in Q3 2025 is showing more signs of brightening after passing through the year's weakest period in Q2. Positive factors stem from significantly lower oil prices and a temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, though risks of renewed conflict remain. Thai exports are a critical support, and government measures are helping sustain purchasing power. The research team assesses that Thailand's economy will face growth risks of 2-2.5% over the next 3-5 years, with very little chance of returning to growth above 3% unless there is clearer economic structural reform. This presents a long-term problem for Thai economy if not addressed.

CIMB's five recommendations for Thai economy in Q3 2025 are:

1. Average oil price of $80 per barrel supports economic recovery. After oil prices surged past $100/barrel in Q2 before falling below $70/barrel in late June-early July, CIMB expects Q3 average prices around $80/barrel. While risks remain, this level supports Thai economic recovery.

2. Federal Reserve keeps rates at 3.75%; BOT maintains policy rate at 1%. CIMB believes US inflation will gradually ease with energy prices, and US inflation is not primarily demand-driven as rents and wages are not rising sharply. The Fed may not need to raise rates to combat inflation and will rebalance next year, while Thailand's central bank is likely to hold its policy rate at 1% due to cost-side inflation pressure rather than demand-side.

3. New trade war is the biggest risk for the second half. While energy tensions ease, new risks are shifting toward trade warfare. The US may revive Section 301 measures previously used against China, pressuring trading partners and creating new global trade volatility that could impact Thai exports.

4. Baht strengthens to 33.10 per dollar. GDP growth in 2025 may reach 2%, driven mainly by private investment rather than consumption. The baht is expected to strengthen to around 33.10 per dollar in Q3 from capital inflows and stable US interest rate trends.

5. Government must accelerate confidence-building policies. The government must build confidence, generate revenue, reduce budget deficits, maintain fiscal discipline, and avoid breaching the 70% debt-to-GDP ceiling within 2-3 years to preserve the country's credit rating. CIMB urges the government to focus on investments through public-private partnerships or new ventures that create jobs and long-term income for people, rather than short-term cash handouts. Past experience shows consumption tends to decline after such measures end, so the bank prefers policies that drive job creation, employment, and income generation.

Although the overall Q3 economy is improving, private consumption remains flat and income growth is slow while cost of living remains high.

Energy Minister Eknath Prommaphand unveiled Thailand's sweeping electricity restructuring plan on July 15, 2025, at Government House, following a National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC) meeting presided over by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. The committee approved a major price reduction measure for all residential households, capping the electricity rate at no more than 3 baht per unit for the first 200 units consumed. This initiative will reach over 23 million households, including renters and temporary residents, with implementation expected in August's billing cycle pending regulatory approval.

"We are not merely adjusting the FT rate quarterly, but completely restructuring the base electricity tariff," Prommaphand explained. "We are separating public electricity charges from the baseline rates to redirect the difference as a discount to consumers." The government also approved a new renewable energy policy by removing the previous 2,000-megawatt cap and industry restrictions on Direct PPA contracts, allowing all sectors to purchase clean electricity directly based on market competition rather than through traditional monopoly channels.

The ministry is redesigning Thailand's electricity system to limit state utilities to grid management only, while buyers and sellers negotiate directly according to market mechanisms. For data center operators—who consume significant power—the government is creating a separate classification to ensure electricity pricing reflects actual LNG import fuel costs without burdening residential users. Data center rates will be monitored to comply with environmental and water resource standards.

When asked whether data center electricity rates would reach 5–6 baht per unit, the energy minister noted that rates would reflect real LNG import costs under current market conditions and could fluctuate with global LNG price movements. The Energy Regulatory Commission will study the tariff structure for data centers, which is expected to be higher than other industrial and residential rates due to their high consumption. The committee also approved measures to address long-standing issues with private power purchase agreements, including reviewing the power purchase premium (Adder) previously set at 6.50–8 baht per unit.

Sompon Isbangyaeng, president of the Thai Volleyball Association, is preparing to meet with the Ministry of Tourism and Sports to request support for hosting the VNL 2027 tournament. This initiative follows Thailand's women's volleyball team finishing 14th in the 2026 Women's Nations League. Sompon disclosed that Volleyball World is interested in having Thailand serve as host not only for regular weekly matches but also potentially for the championship round. He stated that next year the association will discuss the matter with the tourism and sports minister to secure government backing. Volleyball World has expressed confidence in Thailand's capabilities and is willing to designate Thailand as a host venue. Although the final decision on hosting the championship round still requires approval from multiple parties, Sompon expressed confidence that Thailand will secure at least one week of matches. He emphasized that Volleyball World is ready to give Thailand hosting rights and that Thais can look forward to watching the VNL in their country next year for at least one week.

On July 15, Deputy Prime Minister Arkhom Sarnsamak chaired a meeting of the Central Committee for Local Official Examinations (CSTE) at the Department of Local Government Promotion to consider revoking the appointments of 5,000 local civil servants whose exam scores were found to be irregular. When asked by reporters if he felt troubled by the matter, Sarnsamak responded by asking "What would trouble me?" He clarified that authority over such decisions rests with the Central Administrative Committee, but the CSTE is tasked by that committee to conduct the examinations. When issues arise, they must be brought to the CSTE meeting and then referred to the Central Committee for final consideration and resolution, which is expected on July 23.

Before the meeting, CSTE members attended en masse but largely declined to comment. Representatives from the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and the Central Investigation Bureau also attended as observers. Suchart Krovkitanon, deputy secretary-general of the NACC, explained that he had only recently received an invitation and would act as an observer. He noted that the CSTE would provide information on whether the 5,000 appointments would be revoked, and he will consider whether to include observations from today's meeting in the NACC's own investigation.

When asked whether the NACC would initially recommend revoking all 5,000 appointments, Suchart said the matter requires further review due to ongoing cross-level investigations. He emphasized that the authority to revoke appointments belongs to the CSTE, not the NACC. Regarding additional exam verification, he explained that the CSTE determines which answers were altered, but has not yet shared those results with the NACC. The investigation remains ongoing to identify all involved parties, including both government officials and test-takers. Currently, 22 individuals remain under investigation, with potential expansion depending on findings. The NACC's findings will be forwarded to the fact-finding committee chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Nilprapart.

Health Minister Pattana Prom-Phattana assured on July 15, 2569 that burn patients from the Ladprao beer factory fire will receive uninterrupted treatment as the ministry proactively arranges transfers to state hospitals before the 72-hour critical emergency care (UCEP) window closes.

The Health Ministry directed the Medical Department to coordinate with Bangkok public hospitals and private facilities treating the injured to plan patient transfers in advance. Hospital pairings have been established to specify which patients will be sent to which facilities, with most receiving hospitals being state facilities with full capacity to provide comprehensive care. The ministry assured the public that both treatment quality and continuity will not be disrupted.

Medical costs will be covered according to each patient's insurance, health insurance policies, or other available benefits. Those without alternative coverage can use the national health insurance card (gold card) for treatment at state hospitals at no additional cost for necessary care.

When asked whether all patients currently in private hospitals would be transferred to state facilities, the minister said discussions and agreements are finalized. However, transfers require doctors from both the sending and receiving hospitals to assess each patient's safety for transport and the receiving hospital's capacity to manage their care. Patients still in critical condition will be evaluated individually by their treating physicians to ensure maximum safety before any transfer.