Thai Retail Sales Forecast to Grow 3% to 4.38 Trillion Baht
Thai retail sales are forecast to grow just 3% to 4.38 trillion baht in 2025, but a widening economic divide threatens recovery as small businesses struggle while consumers reduce spending per transaction to essentials only.
The Thai Retailers Association has outlined the economic and retail outlook for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, with Nath Wongpanitch reappointed for a second term as chairman. The association reports mixed economic signals, with the Thai retail market expected to expand slowly to reach approximately 4.38 trillion baht in 2025, a 3% increase compared to 2024, as consumers plan purchases carefully and businesses manage costs efficiently.
The economy shows K-shaped recovery, with the upper segment—export-driven industries, digital economy, electronics, data centers, and investment—performing well, while the lower segment of SMEs and small businesses struggles with high costs, tight liquidity, debt problems, and competition from cheap imported goods. With over 3.3 million SMEs employing approximately 13.6 million people (roughly 70% of Thailand's private-sector workforce), their slow recovery threatens employment chains, household income, domestic purchasing power, and could worsen economic inequality.
While consumers continue shopping, spending per transaction has declined. The Retail Sentiment Index for July remains above the neutral 50-point level, with businesses hopeful about year-end festival spending and additional stimulus measures. However, most operators expect sales in quarters 3–4 to remain flat compared to last year, as consumer purchasing power has not fully recovered despite unchanged shopping frequency. Average spending per bill has decreased, reflecting shrinking purchasing power as consumers buy only essentials, with sales gains concentrated in food and daily necessities rather than luxury goods.
