Kasikornbank Raises Foreign Tourist Target to 31.3 Million

Kasikornbank Research Center has raised its forecast for foreign tourists visiting Thailand in 2025 to 31.3 million people, with tourism revenue expected to reach 1.54 trillion baht. The research center indicates a slight improvement in the trend of international arrivals in the remaining months of 2025, provided Middle East tensions do not escalate to disrupt international travel and airspace remains open. Recovery in European and Middle Eastern tourist markets is expected to drive growth in the fourth quarter, traditionally a peak season for European travelers.

Data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports shows that from January 1 to August 8, 2025, foreign tourist arrivals totaled 19.15 million, down 2.9% compared to the same period last year. Key headwinds include Middle East tensions, intensifying international tourism competition, and economic challenges in several countries affecting foreign travel plans.

However, Kasikornbank Research Center has upgraded its 2025 forecast to 31.36 million foreign tourists—a 4.9% decline from 2024—compared to its earlier estimate of just 30 million in April. This reflects better late-year recovery prospects than previously anticipated. Key support comes from European and Middle Eastern tourists, provided Middle East tensions do not escalate. Additionally, airfares on many routes are declining from conflict-driven peaks, though still above prior-year averages, while airlines are running promotions to stimulate travel.

Other factors expected to boost late-year tourism include global conferences and events in Thailand, such as the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 and the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival, along with year-end holiday promotions.

However, the market faces multiple risks. Kasikornbank Research Center notes that the foreign tourist market remains fragile, particularly due to intensifying tourism competition and changing tourist behavior. Regional competitors like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia continue to attract growing numbers of foreign tourists. Thailand's key declining markets include South Korea, Malaysia, India, and Indonesia. Indonesian tourist arrivals in the first seven months of 2025 fell 23.2% year-on-year, partly due to rupiah depreciation—approximately 7% weaker against the baht as of August 5, 2025.

The South Korean market faces pressure from economic and stock market headwinds, with South Korean outbound travel declining 5.9% in June and July, preventing full recovery in arrivals to Thailand. Additionally, advance flight bookings to Thailand for August through November 2025, as of July 31, declined 2.1% from projections on July 16, reflecting market uncertainty. Most flight reductions are in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly from India, Indonesia, and South Korea.

Foreign tourist revenue in 2025 is forecast at approximately 1.54 trillion baht, down 3.1% from the prior year, while average spending per person per trip is estimated at around 49,000 baht, up 2% from 2024. Overall spending patterns remain relatively stable.