Thai Banks Forecast Gold at 75,000 Baht Per Baht by Year-End
Thai banks forecast gold prices could hit 75,000 baht per troy ounce by year-end, driven by central bank purchases worldwide and shifting market dynamics favoring ETFs over retail investors.
Analysts at Huasengheng Gold Futures predict gold prices could reach approximately 5,000 USD per ounce by year-end 2024, with Thai domestic gold prices potentially ranging from 75,000 to 75,700 baht per baht troy. Over the past 20 years, gold prices have surged more than eightfold, reflecting a structural shift from retail investor-driven markets to dominance by gold ETFs and global central banks. Central banks worldwide have maintained consistent net gold purchases since 2010, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually in 2022–2024.
Global gold prices reached a historic high of 5,595 USD per ounce in January 2024 before declining from March to June amid geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices that fueled inflation concerns and expectations of higher US Federal Reserve rates. However, prices rebounded in July and August, with analysts identifying five key factors affecting gold prices: global central bank interest rate trajectories, the Iran conflict situation, investment capital flows, US midterm elections, and continued central bank purchases to reduce USD holdings.
SCB Financial Markets notes that gold faces short-term pressure from rising US government bond yields, exacerbated by Middle East tensions pushing oil above 100 USD per barrel. However, if markets expect the conflict to end soon and the Federal Reserve to hold rates, gold prices could continue rising. Chinese central banks have maintained continuous purchases despite conflict escalation, while some central banks now diversify by storing gold abroad, particularly in the UK, further supporting global gold prices heading toward the end of 2024 and into 2025.
