US Tariffs Threaten Over 1 Trillion Baht in Thai Exports
US tariffs on Thai goods starting July 24 risk over 1 trillion baht in exports, with 11 major product categories affected including electronics, machinery, seafood, and textiles unless exemptions are granted.
The US Section 301 tariff measure poses an initial risk exceeding 1.02 trillion baht in Thai goods, reducing overall export growth projections from 8% to 6-7%. Experts are urging expedited action on exemption lists.
Independent economist Atthapol Pisalwanit, a specialist in international and ASEAN economics, revealed that starting July 24, 2025, the United States began collecting an additional 12.5% import tariff on Thai goods under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, following the end of a temporary 10% tariff under Section 122.
The US Trade Representative Office (USTR) justified the action by arguing that Thailand lacks and does not effectively enforce bans on goods produced wholly or partially using forced labor. This allows forced-labor products to enter the US market and supply chains, putting compliant manufacturers at a cost disadvantage.
A separate Section 301 investigation into excess industrial capacity remains ongoing but is not the basis for the current 12.5% tariff and could trigger additional measures in the future.
Pisalwanit identified 11 major product groups at risk, encompassing nearly all Thai exports to the US except USTR-designated exemptions. At-risk categories include electrical appliances and electronics, machinery, rubber products, plastics, processed foods, seafood, rice and rice products, textiles and apparel, furniture, gems, and jewelry. Specific items range from air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines to computer storage devices, industrial machinery, vehicle tires, rubber gloves, canned foods, shrimp, tuna, jasmine rice, clothing, footwear, furniture, and refined precious metals and gems. Individual tariff codes must be verified for exemption status.
Exempted goods include essential items and certain raw materials, civil aircraft and parts, pharmaceuticals-related goods, products under Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, copper, vehicles and parts), certain wood products, and some semiconductors. Also exempt are goods that departed their origin port before 12:01 am on July 24, 2025, and cleared US customs before 12:01 am on July 28, 2025, as well as humanitarian donations, media materials, and personal effects in travelers' baggage. However, these exemptions apply only to Section 301 tariffs; goods may still owe standard import duties, Section 232 tariffs, anti-dumping duties, or countervailing duties.
Based on 2024 export data, Thailand shipped approximately $72.212 billion in goods to the US annually. The 11 primary product groups potentially subject to Section 301 tariffs totaled about $58.57 billion yearly. For August–December 2025 (five months), the 11 at-risk groups are projected to export roughly $24.404 billion, or 829.742 billion baht—81.11% of all Thai goods expected to reach the US market in that period.
