Gold Prices Set to Rise as Central Banks Build Reserves
Central banks worldwide, led by China and Poland, are aggressively building gold reserves as emerging economies seek to match developed nations' holdings, driving prices upward in a sustained uptrend.
YLG believes gold prices remain in an uptrend when viewed from a macro perspective, with central bank purchasing as a key driver of prices. Major economies including China have been continuously building gold reserves, importing over 1,000 tonnes from January through August alone—exceeding the entire 2024 import volume. Mid-sized economies like Poland have been accumulating gold since 2018 and, despite already holding about 30% of its international reserves in gold, aims to build reserves up to 700 tonnes. Analysis of global central bank gold holdings reveals that major powers maintain very high proportions of gold reserves, while emerging market economies hold less than 10%, suggesting many countries will continue seeking to increase their gold purchases. The top 20 countries by gold reserve proportion, according to data from the International Monetary Fund in the second quarter of 2025, include: Uzbekistan (86–87%, 416 tonnes), United States (84%, 8,133.5 tonnes), Germany (84%, 3,350.3 tonnes), Lebanon (82%, 286.8 tonnes), France (81.8%, 2,437 tonnes), Italy (81.3%, 2,451.8 tonnes), Portugal (79.9%, 382.7 tonnes), Kazakhstan (77%, 339.9 tonnes), Netherlands (74.2%, 612.5 tonnes), Greece (64–65%, 115 tonnes), Cyprus (62.4%, 13.9 tonnes), Turkey (53.4%, 603 tonnes), Russia (47%, 2,317 tonnes), Spain (33.8%, 281.6 tonnes), Poland (30.1%, 582 tonnes with a target of 700 tonnes), Curaçao and Sint Maarten (29.9%, 13.1 tonnes), Belarus (28.4%, 53.8 tonnes), and the European Central Bank (28.1%, 504.8 tonnes).
