SCB FM Forecasts Baht to Trade 33.25-33.85 Through Year End
SCB FM predicts the Thai baht will trade between 33.25 and 33.85 baht per US dollar for the rest of 2024 before weakening to around 34.50 baht in Q3 2027. The forecast cites a strong dollar, rising US yields, geopolitical tensions, and uneven Thai economic recovery as key pressures, while stronger exports and easing oil prices provide some support. The bank also warns that US tariffs and the November midterm elections could add short‑term pressure.
SCB FM assesses that the short-term baht still faces depreciation risk from a strong dollar, rising US bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty, but oil price pressure is easing. The baht is expected to move within a range of 33.25-33.85 baht per dollar for the remainder of the year before weakening to near 34.50 baht in Q3 2027, amid uneven Thai economic recovery and persistent interest‑rate differential pressure. Patrick Puleya, Head of Financial Markets at Siam Commercial Bank, said the bank’s financial markets team evaluated that the baht has faced depreciation pressure from the strengthening US dollar index, rising US government bond yields, and concerns about European politics and fiscal matters, especially France. Meanwhile, uncertainty from the Iran war continues to create volatility in global financial markets. The baht also receives support from stronger-than-expected Thai exports, with August export data helping to ease trade‑deficit pressure, while a gradual recovery of crude oil supplies from the Gulf reduces the risk of a sharp oil price rise that would further pressure the baht. Patrick added that although baht volatility has decreased and its movements have narrowed, foreign factors — especially the Iran war and global interest‑rate trends — still significantly influence the baht, with the currency still tracking crude‑oil price volatility even as oil shipments from the Arab Gulf have risen markedly. Another key factor is the direction of US Federal Reserve monetary policy, which signals continued concern over inflation pressure and may need to maintain tightening for a period, supporting the dollar and pushing up US Treasury yields, especially long‑term bonds, due to worries about fiscal deficits and the volume of bonds the government must issue to finance borrowing. In addition, political and fiscal uncertainty in France continues to weigh on the euro, boosting the dollar as a safe‑haven asset and adding further pressure on the baht. Watch for US tariffs and the election, which may pressure the baht in the short term.
