Thai Inflation Rises to 2.82% in September on Oil, Food
Thailand's consumer price inflation rose to 2.82% in September 2026, driven by higher fuel and food costs. The government expects inflation to stay between 1.8% and 2.2% for the full year, with a possible rise to near 3% in the fourth quarter. Core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, increased 1.50% over the first nine months.
The increase in fuel and food prices has raised living costs, pushing Thailand's Q4 2026 inflation forecast to around 3%. Annual inflation is now projected to be between 1.8% and 2.2%, with a midpoint of 2%. Nantanong Jirasetpha of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office explained that the September 2026 CPI reached 102.93, up 2.82% year‑on‑year and 0.25% month‑on‑month. Key factors include domestic fuel prices staying above last year's levels, higher prices for ready‑to‑eat and fresh foods like eggs, chicken, vegetables and fruit, and increased transportation costs. Other goods and services contributed little to inflation. Q3 2026 inflation was 2.44% higher than a year earlier but 0.45% lower than Q2, giving a nine‑month average CPI rise of 1.54% and core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) of 1.50%. August’s inflation rise was driven by non‑food, non‑beverage items up 2.67% and food and non‑alcoholic beverages up 3.07%. Of the 464 items used to calculate inflation, 301 rose in price compared with last year, including fuel, rent, public transport, mobile phone fees, noodles, prepared meals, eggs, pork, lime, spring onion and Chinese cabbage; 31 were unchanged and 132 fell, such as electricity, hotel rooms, glutinous rice and expressway tolls. Flooding mainly affected fresh vegetable prices, especially leafy greens, which rose 3.49% on average, though its overall impact on inflation was only about 0.1%. Looking ahead, Q4 inflation is expected to stay elevated due to continued high fuel prices from Middle‑East energy tensions, rising processed food costs, higher transport expenses linked to fuel, and weather‑sensitive fresh food prices. Downward pressure may come from lower electricity tariffs (3.86 baht per unit versus 3.95 previously) and competitive pricing of personal‑use goods.
