Asian Development Bank Cuts Thailand's 2027 Growth Forecast to 1.9%

The Asian Development Bank has revised its economic outlook for Thailand in its September 2026 Asian Development Outlook report. The bank upgraded Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0 percent from the previous 1.8 percent projected in July, supported by strong technology-related exports, robust private investment growth, and government fiscal support that help offset broader economic headwinds.

For 2027, however, the bank downgraded its forecast to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent, citing expectations that global demand for technology products will cool slightly, which could slow Thai exports in that sector accordingly.

Inflation is projected to decline to 2.5 percent in 2026 from 2.9 percent in July, as government measures partially mitigate impacts from Middle East tensions. The bank expects inflation to ease further to 1.3 percent in 2027 as energy prices moderate. Key downside risks include geopolitical and trade tensions, tighter fiscal space, and volatile weather patterns that could hurt agriculture, with El Niño expected to have limited impact this year but pose risks in mid-2027.

Regionally, growth in developing Asia and the Pacific is forecast to slow from 5.5 percent in 2025 to 5.0 percent in 2026, before picking up marginally to 5.1 percent in 2027. ADB President Masato Kanda noted the region remains resilient but faces mounting risks from intensifying El Niño effects, prolonged energy crises, and potential financial market instability, calling for governments to strengthen support for vulnerable populations.